Answer by Dustin Moskovitz:
Of course not. It took at least 6 or 7.
Seriously though, Facebook was such a phenomenon *right away* at Harvard that 80% of the students were using it within the first week. It was very easy to see that there was nothing particularly special about Harvard that meant real-identity social networking would be successful there and not other places. We weren't completely confident that we would be the ones to replicate the model, but we were absolutely certain that some product like Facebook would become extremely popular and change the world in all the ways it has.